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Juventud Unida Univ. vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
CANC
00:00
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
4/12/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 27Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez (San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Juventud Unida Univ.51%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Peñarol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.34
Sportivo Peñarol
0.74

Juventud Unida Univ. creates 81% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.02
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
0.62
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida Univ. ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventud Unida Univ. or draw
79%
Juventud Unida Univ. or Sportivo Peñarol
72%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
49%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
74%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
39%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
52%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
17%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
71%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida Univ. at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 1.02 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
51%
level
28%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
21%

Juventud Unida Univ. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Juventud Unida Univ. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventud Unida Univ. host Sportivo Peñarol

April 12, 2020: Juventud Unida Univ. take on Sportivo Peñarol in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Juventud Unida Univ. host Sportivo Peñarol at Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez (San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.