Juventud Unida Univ. 1–1 Sportivo Desamparados

Juventud Unida Univ.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sportivo Desamparados

9/19/2018

Torneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 3Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez (San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Juventud Unida Univ.49%

×Draw31%

Sportivo Desamparados20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud Unida Univ.Expected goals in this matchSportivo Desamparados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.64

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.18

Sportivo Desamparados

0.64

Juventud Unida Univ. creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

1.02

creates per match

0.66

0.62

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.02

Sportivo Desamparados

0.66

allows per match

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.62

Sportivo Desamparados

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida Univ. ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Juventud Unida Univ. or draw

80%

Juventud Unida Univ. or Sportivo Desamparados

69%

Draw or Sportivo Desamparados

51%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+

22%

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals

69%

Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals

33%

Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals

12%

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

47%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

14%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)

71%

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida Univ. at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 1.02 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more

49%

level

31%

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

20%

Juventud Unida Univ. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventud Unida Univ. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff