Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventud Torremolinos vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
11/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos69%
×Draw19%
Melilla CD12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
2.13
Melilla CD
0.74

Juventud Torremolinos creates 188% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
88%
Juventud Torremolinos or Melilla CD
81%
Draw or Melilla CD
31%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
45%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
88%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
63%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
35%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
52%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
17%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
85%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.13

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
69%
level
19%
Melilla CD scores more
12%

Juventud Torremolinos at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventud Torremolinos 2 – 0 Melilla CD

Juventud Torremolinos beat Melilla CD 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.