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Juventud Torremolinos vs Europa Fc — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Europa Fc
Europa Fc
8/30/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos42%
×Draw27%
Europa Fc32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.37
Europa Fc
1.16

Juventud Torremolinos creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.32
Europa Fc
1.21

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.11
Europa Fc
1.42

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Europa Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
68%
Juventud Torremolinos or Europa Fc
73%
Draw or Europa Fc
58%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
19%
Europa Fc wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
75%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
40%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
16%
Europa Fc 1+ goals
69%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
32%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
57%
Europa Fc (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.32 + Europa Fc defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Europa Fc attack 1.21 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
42%
level
27%
Europa Fc scores more
32%

Juventud Torremolinos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Juventud Torremolinos 0–1 Europa Fc

Europa Fc beat Juventud Torremolinos 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.