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Juventud Torremolinos vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
9/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos84%
×Draw11%
Atlético Melilla5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
2.91
Atlético Melilla
0.57

Juventud Torremolinos creates 411% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
95%
Juventud Torremolinos or Atlético Melilla
89%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
16%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
65%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
94%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
78%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
54%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
43%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
11%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
95%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.91

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
84%
level
11%
Atlético Melilla scores more
5%

Juventud Torremolinos at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Juventud Torremolinos 3–1 Atlético Melilla

Juventud Torremolinos beat Atlético Melilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.