Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventud Torremolinos vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Almería II
Almería II
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos46%
×Draw26%
Almería II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.46
Almería II
1.09

Juventud Torremolinos creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
72%
Juventud Torremolinos or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
54%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
22%
Almería II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
77%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
43%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
18%
Almería II 1+ goals
66%
Almería II 2+ goals
30%
Almería II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
62%
Almería II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Almería II attack 1.51 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
46%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
28%

Juventud Torremolinos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Juventud Torremolinos 1–0 Almería II

Juventud Torremolinos beat Almería II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.