Juventud Antoniana 0–0 Union Sunchales

Juventud Antoniana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Sunchales

9/16/2024

Torneo Federal A · Lower Table Round - 9Estadio Fray Honorato Pistoia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Juventud Antoniana53%

×Draw27%

Union Sunchales20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud AntonianaExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.78

Juventud Antoniana

1.45

Union Sunchales

0.78

Juventud Antoniana creates 86% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 85 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

0.77

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Juventud Antoniana

1.25

Union Sunchales

0.78

allows per match

Juventud Antoniana

0.77

Union Sunchales

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Antoniana ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventud Antoniana or draw

80%

Juventud Antoniana or Union Sunchales

73%

Draw or Union Sunchales

47%

Winning margin

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+

27%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals

77%

Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals

42%

Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals

18%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

54%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

18%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)

72%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Antoniana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.77 · 81 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Antoniana attack 1.25 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Juventud Antoniana defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventud Antoniana scores more

53%

level

27%

Union Sunchales scores more

20%

Juventud Antoniana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventud Antoniana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Taborda← L. Nallin

61'

G. Albertengo← M. Barzola

73'

S. Faudone← T. Allassia

76'

W. Bracamonte← M. Mamani

83'

J. Bustamante← M. Correa

88'

V. Madrazo← D. Torres

89'

P. Luque← B. Nellen

Juventud

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Espeche

46'▲G. Taborda←▼L. Nallin

76'▲W. Bracamonte←▼M. Mamani

83'▲J. Bustamante←▼M. Correa

88'▲V. Madrazo←▼D. Torres

Juventud Antoniana substitutes

TabordaBracamonteBustamanteMadrazo

Manager: M. Milanese

61'▲G. Albertengo←▼M. Barzola

73'▲S. Faudone←▼T. Allassia

89'▲P. Luque←▼B. Nellen

Union Sunchales substitutes

AlbertengoFaudoneLuque