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Juventud Antoniana vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Juventud Antoniana
Juventud Antoniana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
11/5/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Relegation Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Juventud Antoniana52%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Peñarol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Antoniana
1.46
Sportivo Peñarol
0.82

Juventud Antoniana creates 78% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 62 away

creates per match

Juventud Antoniana
1.25
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Juventud Antoniana
0.77
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Antoniana ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juventud Antoniana or draw
79%
Juventud Antoniana or Sportivo Peñarol
73%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
48%

Winning margin

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+
26%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals
77%
Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals
43%
Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals
18%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
56%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
20%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)
71%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Antoniana at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.77 · 81 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Antoniana attack 1.25 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Juventud Antoniana defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventud Antoniana scores more
52%
level
27%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
21%

Juventud Antoniana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventud Antoniana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud Antoniana vs Sportivo Peñarol

Juventud Antoniana beat Sportivo Peñarol 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.