Juventud Antoniana 1–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Juventud Antoniana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Def. de Pronunciamiento

M. Sproat 53' (pen)

J. Rossi 90+6', 45+3'

9/4/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 28Estadio Fray Honorato Pistoia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Juventud Antoniana50%

×Draw28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud AntonianaExpected goals in this matchDef. de Pronunciamiento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.82

Juventud Antoniana

1.39

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.82

Juventud Antoniana creates 70% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 88 away

1.29

creates per match

0.81

0.84

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Juventud Antoniana

1.29

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.81

allows per match

Juventud Antoniana

0.84

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Antoniana ↓

Def. de Pronunciamiento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Juventud Antoniana or draw

78%

Juventud Antoniana or Def. de Pronunciamiento

72%

Draw or Def. de Pronunciamiento

50%

Winning margin

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+

25%

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals

75%

Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals

40%

Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals

16%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

56%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

20%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)

69%

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Antoniana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Antoniana attack 1.29 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 0.81 + Juventud Antoniana defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventud Antoniana scores more

50%

level

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

22%

Juventud Antoniana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventud Antoniana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

J. Rossi

53'

M. SproatPenalty

65'

L. Villa← F. Velazco

75'

H. Hechalar← J. Vanetta

75'

N. Rodríguez← L. Soto

75'

L. Robles← M. Rivas

82'

M. Sampayo← H. Echague

88'

S. Hernández← M. Sproat

90+3'

E. Cardozo← A. Pastorelli

90+6'

J. Rossi

Juventud

Def.

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Martel

65'▲L. Villa←▼F. Velazco

75'▲H. Hechalar←▼J. Vanetta

88'▲S. Hernández←▼M. Sproat

Juventud Antoniana substitutes

VillaHechalarHernández

Manager: R. De Angélis

75'▲N. Rodríguez←▼L. Soto

75'▲L. Robles←▼M. Rivas

82'▲M. Sampayo←▼H. Echague

90+3'▲E. Cardozo←▼A. Pastorelli

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

RodríguezRoblesSampayoCardozo

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Antoniana 1–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Def. de Pronunciamiento beat Juventud Antoniana 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 4, 2022.

Goals: J. Rossi (45+3', 90+6'), M. Sproat (53' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Fray Honorato Pistoia in Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta.

Juventud Antoniana vs Def. de Pronunciamiento — Torneo Federal A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Antoniana 1–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento