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Juvenil Ponteareas vs Sofán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sofán
Sofán
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio Municipal de Pardellas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juvenil Ponteareas55%
×Draw24%
Sofán21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69
Sofán
0.94

Juvenil Ponteareas creates 80% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
0.94
Sofán
0.88

allows per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
1.00
Sofán
2.44

finishing

Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par
Sofán+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenil Ponteareas ↓

Sofán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Juvenil Ponteareas or draw
79%
Juvenil Ponteareas or Sofán
76%
Draw or Sofán
45%

Winning margin

Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
30%
Sofán wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
82%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
50%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
24%
Sofán 1+ goals
61%
Sofán 2+ goals
24%
Sofán 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
72%
Sofán (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juvenil Ponteareas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Sofán away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.94 + Sofán defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sofán attack 0.88 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
55%
level
24%
Sofán scores more
21%

Juvenil Ponteareas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juvenil Ponteareas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Juvenil Ponteareas 1–1 Sofán

Juvenil Ponteareas and Sofán drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pardellas in Ponteareas.