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Juvenil Ponteareas vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
3/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Municipal de Pardellas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juvenil Ponteareas36%
×Draw30%
Rápido Bouzas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juvenil Ponteareas
1.08
Rápido Bouzas
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

creates per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
0.94
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
1.00
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenil Ponteareas ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Juvenil Ponteareas or draw
65%
Juvenil Ponteareas or Rápido Bouzas
70%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
64%

Winning margin

Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
14%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
66%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
29%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
10%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
65%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
29%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
51%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juvenil Ponteareas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.94 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
36%
level
30%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
35%

Juvenil Ponteareas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juvenil Ponteareas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juvenil Ponteareas 1 – 0 Rápido Bouzas

Juvenil Ponteareas beat Rápido Bouzas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pardellas in Ponteareas.