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Juvenil Ponteareas vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal de Pardellas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juvenil Ponteareas33%
×Draw30%
Deportivo La Coruña II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juvenil Ponteareas
0.99
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
0.94
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Juvenil Ponteareas
1.00
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenil Ponteareas ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juvenil Ponteareas or draw
63%
Juvenil Ponteareas or Deportivo La Coruña II
70%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
67%

Winning margin

Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
63%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
26%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
47%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juvenil Ponteareas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.94 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
33%
level
30%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
37%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Juvenil Ponteareas 0–0 Deportivo La Coruña II

Juvenil Ponteareas and Deportivo La Coruña II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pardellas in Ponteareas.