Juve Stabia 3–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spezia

A. Okoro 89'

C. Pierobon 74'

G. Leone 45' (pen)

G. Aurelio 32'

3/21/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia44%

×Draw27%

Spezia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Juve Stabia

1.39

Spezia

1.10

Juve Stabia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 98 away

1.42

creates per match

1.12

1.08

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Spezia

1.12

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Spezia

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

70%

Juve Stabia or Spezia

73%

Draw or Spezia

56%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

21%

Spezia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

75%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

40%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

16%

Spezia 1+ goals

67%

Spezia 2+ goals

30%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

59%

Spezia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Spezia attack 1.12 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

44%

level

27%

Spezia scores more

30%

Juve Stabia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

G. Leone

Juve Stabia · M

8.7

Match Events

32'

G. Aurelio↳ A. Romano

37'

Pietro Beruatto

45'

G. LeonePenalty

46'

M. Varnier← S. Diakite

46'

C. Pierobon← E. Torrasi

52'

Giovanni Bonfanti

56'

Emanuele Adamo

58'

M. Ricciardi← L. Carissoni

61'

M. Valoti← E. Adamo

67'

A. Okoro← A. Gabrielloni

74'

C. Pierobon↳ C. Dalle Mura

78'

L. Vignali← M. Ruggero

78'

V. Vlahovic← P. Beruatto

86'

G. Lapadula← C. Comotto

89'

A. Okoro↳ M. Ricciardi

90+6'

Petko Hristov

90'

M. Mannini← N. Mosti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuveSpezia

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots8

3.34Expected Goals (xG)1.06

3Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots8

8On Target2

6Off Target5

6Blocked1

15Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

513Total Passes404

440Accurate Passes325

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0