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Juve Stabia vs Sassuolo — Serie B 2018

Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
10/29/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 11Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juve Stabia33%
×Draw26%
Sassuolo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juve Stabia
1.27
Sassuolo
1.46

Sassuolo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Juve Stabia
1.42
Sassuolo
1.84

allows per match

Juve Stabia
1.08
Sassuolo
1.11

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par
Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw
58%
Juve Stabia or Sassuolo
74%
Draw or Sassuolo
67%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+
14%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals
72%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
36%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
14%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
77%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
43%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
44%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Sassuolo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sassuolo attack 1.84 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juve Stabia scores more
33%
level
26%
Sassuolo scores more
42%

Sassuolo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Juve Stabia 2–2 Sassuolo

Juve Stabia and Sassuolo drew 2-2 in Serie B on October 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.