Juve Stabia 3–3 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Padova

R. Burnete 80'

K. Zeroli 50'

A. Gabrielloni 28' (pen)

M. Bortolussi 89'

A. Capelli 86'

F. Sgarbi 70'

2/7/2026

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Juve Stabia48%

×Draw26%

Padova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.08

Juve Stabia

1.53

Padova

1.08

Juve Stabia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

1.42

creates per match

1.08

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Padova

1.08

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Padova

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

73%

Juve Stabia or Padova

74%

Draw or Padova

52%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

24%

Padova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

78%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

45%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

20%

Padova 1+ goals

66%

Padova 2+ goals

29%

Padova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

64%

Padova (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Padova away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Padova defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Padova attack 1.08 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

48%

level

26%

Padova scores more

27%

Juve Stabia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Zeroli

Juve Stabia · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

Marco Perrotta

19'

Giuseppe Leone

28'

A. GabrielloniPenalty

38'

C. Pierobon← O. Correia

46'

K. Zeroli← F. Maistro

46'

F. Belli← C. Faedo

46'

K. Lasagna← L. Di Maggio

47'

Pietro Fusi

50'

K. Zeroli

62'

K. Varas← J. Silva

62'

C. Buonaiuto← F. Di Mariano

69'

M. Ricciardi← A. Cacciamani

69'

R. Burnete← N. Mosti

70'

F. Sgarbi↳ C. Buonaiuto

76'

A. Capelli← M. Perrotta

80'

R. Burnete↳ L. Carissoni

86'

A. Capelli

89'

M. Bortolussi↳ K. Varas

90+1'

Manuel Ricciardi

90+8'

Alessandro Capelli

90+3'

A. Okoro← A. Gabrielloni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuvePadova

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots8

1Corners4

24Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target6

5Off Target1

4Blocked1

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

369Total Passes412

285Accurate Passes321

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

24Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3