Juve Stabia 1–2 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Modena

N. Mosti 74'

F. Zampano 23'

L. Zanimacchia 3'

2/22/2026

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia44%

×Draw27%

Modena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Juve Stabia

1.40

Modena

1.10

Juve Stabia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

1.42

creates per match

1.12

1.08

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Modena

1.12

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Modena

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Modena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

70%

Juve Stabia or Modena

73%

Draw or Modena

56%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

21%

Modena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

75%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

41%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

17%

Modena 1+ goals

67%

Modena 2+ goals

30%

Modena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

60%

Modena (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Modena away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Modena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Modena attack 1.12 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

44%

level

27%

Modena scores more

30%

Juve Stabia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Santoro

Modena · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

L. Zanimacchia↳ S. Santoro

20'

Daniel Tonoli

23'

F. Zampano↳ S. Santoro

41'

Giuseppe Ambrosino

46'

R. Burnete← A. Okoro

47'

Marco Bellich

55'

Alessandro Gabrielloni

57'

Alessio Cacciamani

64'

P. Matheu← F. Maistro

64'

G. Defrel← G. Ambrosino

64'

E. Gliozzi← M. De Luca

65'

G. Beyuku← F. Zampano

74'

M. Ricciardi← A. Cacciamani

74'

N. Mosti↳ R. Burnete

75'

A. Imputato← Y. Massolin

79'

Daniel Tonoli

79'

Daniel Tonoli

83'

D. Adorni←

87'

Luca Zanimacchia

90+7'

Salim Diakité

90+4'

S. Diakite← L. Carissoni

90+4'

M. Mannini← N. Mosti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuveModena

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots9

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.71

19Corners3

17Fouls21

Shots

23Total Shots9

4On Target4

9Off Target4

10Blocked1

15Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

459Total Passes257

384Accurate Passes175

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

17Fouls21

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0