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Juve Stabia vs Crotone — League #943 2026

Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crotone
Crotone
4/15/2024League #943League #943 · Girone C - 36Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juve Stabia25%
×Draw20%
Crotone55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juve Stabia
1.50
Crotone
2.29

Crotone creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Juve Stabia
1.00
Crotone
2.25

allows per match

Juve Stabia
2.33
Crotone
2.00

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw
45%
Juve Stabia or Crotone
80%
Draw or Crotone
75%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+
11%
Crotone wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals
78%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
44%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
19%
Crotone 1+ goals
90%
Crotone 2+ goals
66%
Crotone 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
31%
Crotone (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Crotone away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.00 + Crotone defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crotone attack 2.25 + Juve Stabia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juve Stabia scores more
25%
level
20%
Crotone scores more
55%

Crotone at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #943: Juve Stabia 1–1 Crotone

Juve Stabia and Crotone drew 1-1 in League #943 on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.