Juve Stabia 2–1 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juve Stabia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cremonese

A. Adorante 58'

C. Pierobon 34'

D. Johnsen 77'

5/21/2025

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia40%

×Draw27%

Cremonese33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.16

Juve Stabia

1.30

Cremonese

1.16

Juve Stabia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 117 away

1.42

creates per match

1.23

1.08

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Cremonese

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

67%

Juve Stabia or Cremonese

73%

Draw or Cremonese

60%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

18%

Cremonese wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

73%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

37%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

14%

Cremonese 1+ goals

69%

Cremonese 2+ goals

32%

Cremonese 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

55%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

40%

level

27%

Cremonese scores more

33%

Juve Stabia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Pierobon

Juve Stabia · M

7.3

Match Events

34'

C. Pierobon

38'

Nicola Mosti

46'

L. Moretti← M. Bianchetti

55'

Marco Ruggero

58'

A. Adorante

63'

Manuel De LucaMissed penalty

64'

F. Vázquez← J. Vandeputte

69'

F. Bonazzoli← M. De Luca

74'

Y. Rocchetti← R. Floriani Mussolini

74'

M. Meli← N. Mosti

77'

D. Johnsen↳ T. Barbieri

79'

Patryk Peda

81'

L. Sgarbi← A. Adorante

83'

F. Gelli← M. Castagnetti

89'

F. Maistro← L. Candellone

90'

A. Louati← K. Piscopo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuveCremonese

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots7

3Corners5

22Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target2

9Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

243Total Passes340

172Accurate Passes244

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls14

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1