Juve Stabia 0–1 Cittadella: Result & Stats

Juve Stabia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cittadella

O. Okwonkwo 33'

3/1/2025

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia43%

×Draw28%

Cittadella29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juve StabiaExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Juve Stabia

1.30

Cittadella

1.00

Juve Stabia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 134 away

1.42

creates per match

0.92

1.08

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Juve Stabia

1.42

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Juve Stabia

1.08

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw

71%

Juve Stabia or Cittadella

72%

Draw or Cittadella

57%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+

20%

Cittadella wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals

73%

Juve Stabia 2+ goals

37%

Juve Stabia 3+ goals

14%

Cittadella 1+ goals

63%

Cittadella 2+ goals

26%

Cittadella 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)

60%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juve Stabia scores more

43%

level

28%

Cittadella scores more

29%

Juve Stabia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

N. Pavan

Cittadella · D

7.7

Match Events

33'

O. Okwonkwo

37'

Alessandro Salvi

41'

Riccardo Palmieri

46'

E. Dubickas← C. Pierobon

47'

L. Pandolfi← O. Okwonkwo

49'

Luca Pandolfi

73'

Andrea Adorante

76'

Alessio Rizza

77'

E. Masciangelo← R. Palmieri

77'

A. Tessiore← A. Rizza

78'

L. Sgarbi← K. Piscopo

78'

N. Mosti← M. Ruggero

87'

M. Meli← G. Leone

90'

G. Morachioli← R. Floriani Mussolini

90+2'

J. Desogus← S. Rabbi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuveCittadella

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

8Corners4

20Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked2

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

370Total Passes254

267Accurate Passes148

72%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2