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Juve Stabia vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
11/23/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Juve Stabia42%
×Draw27%
Brescia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juve Stabia
1.35
Brescia
1.13

Juve Stabia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 116 away

creates per match

Juve Stabia
1.42
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

Juve Stabia
1.08
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Juve Stabia+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juve Stabia ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Juve Stabia or draw
69%
Juve Stabia or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
58%

Winning margin

Juve Stabia wins by 2+
19%
Brescia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juve Stabia 1+ goals
74%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
39%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
15%
Brescia 1+ goals
68%
Brescia 2+ goals
31%
Brescia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
57%
Brescia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juve Stabia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juve Stabia attack 1.42 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brescia attack 1.18 + Juve Stabia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juve Stabia scores more
42%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
31%

Juve Stabia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juve Stabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Juve Stabia 0–0 Brescia

Juve Stabia and Brescia drew 0-0 in Serie B on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Castellammare di Stabia.