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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
3 – 3
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
11/11/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów39%
×Draw21%
Wisła Sandomierz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.93
Wisła Sandomierz
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
60%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Wisła Sandomierz
79%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
61%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
21%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
85%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
57%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
30%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
86%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
58%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
49%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
39%
level
21%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
40%

Wisła Sandomierz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3–3 Wisła Sandomierz

Jutrzenka Giebułtów and Wisła Sandomierz drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.