Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1–3 Wisła Puławy

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

FT

1 – 3

Wisła Puławy

8/8/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów15%

×Draw18%

Wisła Puławy67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jutrzenka GiebułtówExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.42

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.07

Wisła Puławy

2.42

Wisła Puławy creates 126% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.50

creates per match

2.10

2.75

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.50

Wisła Puławy

2.10

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.75

Wisła Puławy

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw

33%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Wisła Puławy

82%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

85%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

5%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

66%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

29%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

9%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

91%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

69%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

19%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

15%

level

18%

Wisła Puławy scores more

67%

Wisła Puławy at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff