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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
1 – 3
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
11/21/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów29%
×Draw22%
Stal Kraśnik49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.43
Stal Kraśnik
1.92

Stal Kraśnik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
51%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Stal Kraśnik
78%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
71%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
13%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
76%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
42%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
17%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
85%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
57%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
37%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
29%
level
22%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
49%

Stal Kraśnik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Stal Kraśnik

Stal Kraśnik beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.