Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1–3 Lewart: Result & Stats

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

FT

1 – 3

Lewart

10/31/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów36%

×Draw22%

Lewart42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jutrzenka GiebułtówExpected goals in this matchLewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.85

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.69

Lewart

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

1.50

creates per match

0.95

2.75

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.50

Lewart

0.95

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.75

Lewart

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Lewart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw

58%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Lewart

78%

Draw or Lewart

64%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

18%

Lewart wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

82%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

50%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

24%

Lewart 1+ goals

84%

Lewart 2+ goals

55%

Lewart 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

46%

Lewart (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lewart attack 0.95 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

36%

level

22%

Lewart scores more

42%

Lewart at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff