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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
0 – 4
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
9/13/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów26%
×Draw21%
KSZO 192953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.39
KSZO 1929
2.06

KSZO 1929 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 105 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
47%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or KSZO 1929
79%
Draw or KSZO 1929
74%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
11%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
75%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
40%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
16%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
87%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
61%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
33%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
26%
level
21%
KSZO 1929 scores more
53%

KSZO 1929 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Jutrzenka Giebułtów 0–4 KSZO 1929

KSZO 1929 beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Zabierzów.