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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Hetman Zamosc — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
5 – 3
Hetman Zamosc
Hetman Zamosc
5/15/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 35Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów60%
×Draw17%
Hetman Zamosc22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.90
Hetman Zamosc
1.77

Jutrzenka Giebułtów creates 64% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Hetman Zamosc
0.80

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Hetman Zamosc
4.30

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Hetman Zamosc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
78%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Hetman Zamosc
83%
Draw or Hetman Zamosc
40%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
41%
Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
94%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
78%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
54%
Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals
83%
Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals
53%
Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
73%
Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.90

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
60%
level
17%
Hetman Zamosc scores more
22%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jutrzenka Giebułtów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Hetman Zamosc

Jutrzenka Giebułtów beat Hetman Zamosc 5-3 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.