Juticalpa 3–2 Atlético Choloma: Result & Stats

Juticalpa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Atlético Choloma

8/17/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 5Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Juticalpa45%

×Draw24%

Atlético Choloma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuticalpaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Choloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.32

Juticalpa

1.64

Atlético Choloma

1.32

Juticalpa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 20 away

1.02

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Juticalpa

1.02

Atlético Choloma

1.00

allows per match

Juticalpa

1.65

Atlético Choloma

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juticalpa+0.00on par

Atlético Choloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juticalpa ↓

Atlético Choloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Juticalpa or draw

69%

Juticalpa or Atlético Choloma

76%

Draw or Atlético Choloma

55%

Winning margin

Juticalpa wins by 2+

23%

Atlético Choloma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Juticalpa 1+ goals

81%

Juticalpa 2+ goals

49%

Juticalpa 3+ goals

23%

Atlético Choloma 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Choloma 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Choloma 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Juticalpa (draw refunded)

59%

Atlético Choloma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juticalpa at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Atlético Choloma away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juticalpa attack 1.02 + Atlético Choloma defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Atlético Choloma attack 1.00 + Juticalpa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Juticalpa scores more

45%

level

24%

Atlético Choloma scores more

31%

Juticalpa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juticalpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff