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Jura Sud Foot vs Saint-Denis — Coupe de France 2018

Jura Sud Foot
Jura Sud Footadvanced
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Saint-Denis
Saint-Denis
12/18/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Municipal de Moirans

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jura Sud Foot34%
×Draw21%
Saint-Denis45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jura Sud Foot
1.85
Saint-Denis
2.14

Saint-Denis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jura Sud Foot
1.71
Saint-Denis
2.57

allows per match

Jura Sud Foot
1.71
Saint-Denis
2.00

finishing

Jura Sud Foot+0.00on par
Saint-Denis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jura Sud Foot ↓

Saint-Denis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Jura Sud Foot or draw
55%
Jura Sud Foot or Saint-Denis
79%
Draw or Saint-Denis
66%

Winning margin

Jura Sud Foot wins by 2+
18%
Saint-Denis wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Jura Sud Foot 1+ goals
84%
Jura Sud Foot 2+ goals
55%
Jura Sud Foot 3+ goals
28%
Saint-Denis 1+ goals
88%
Saint-Denis 2+ goals
63%
Saint-Denis 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Jura Sud Foot (draw refunded)
43%
Saint-Denis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jura Sud Foot at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Saint-Denis away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jura Sud Foot attack 1.71 + Saint-Denis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Saint-Denis attack 2.57 + Jura Sud Foot defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jura Sud Foot scores more
34%
level
21%
Saint-Denis scores more
45%

Saint-Denis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint-Denis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Jura Sud Foot 5–2 Saint-Denis

Jura Sud Foot beat Saint-Denis 5-2 in Coupe de France on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Moirans in Moirans-en-Montagne.