Jura Sud Foot 1–1 Limonest: Result & Stats

Jura Sud Foot

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Limonest

M. Wagué 14'

A. Prault 43'

11/30/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Edouard Guillon Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jura Sud Foot21%

×Draw23%

Limonest57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jura Sud FootExpected goals in this matchLimonest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.85

Jura Sud Foot

1.02

Limonest

1.85

Limonest creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Jura Sud Foot

1.71

Limonest

2.00

allows per match

Jura Sud Foot

1.71

Limonest

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jura Sud Foot+0.00on par

Limonest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jura Sud Foot ↓

Limonest →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jura Sud Foot or draw

43%

Jura Sud Foot or Limonest

77%

Draw or Limonest

79%

Winning margin

Jura Sud Foot wins by 2+

Limonest wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Jura Sud Foot 1+ goals

64%

Jura Sud Foot 2+ goals

27%

Jura Sud Foot 3+ goals

Limonest 1+ goals

84%

Limonest 2+ goals

55%

Limonest 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jura Sud Foot (draw refunded)

27%

Limonest (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jura Sud Foot at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Limonest away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jura Sud Foot attack 1.71 + Limonest defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Limonest attack 2.00 + Jura Sud Foot defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jura Sud Foot scores more

21%

level

23%

Limonest scores more

57%

Limonest at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Limonest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Wagué

43'

A. Prault

46'

D. Andrey← D. Diallo

46'

Tiago← L. Faucher

71'

H. Zakouani← M. Inchaud

83'

D. Koita← E. Delbos

84'

H. Zoghlami← E. Rouvière

89'

Y. Assakour← B. Kilic

89'

N. Belvito← B. Feneuil

Jura

Limonest

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Guichard

46'▲D. Andrey←▼D. Diallo

46'▲Tiago←▼L. Faucher

71'▲H. Zakouani←▼M. Inchaud

83'▲D. Koita←▼E. Delbos

89'▲Y. Assakour←▼B. Kilic

Jura Sud Foot substitutes

AndreyTiagoZakouaniKoitaAssakourBalFurtado

Manager: N. Pinard

84'▲H. Zoghlami←▼E. Rouvière

89'▲N. Belvito←▼B. Feneuil

Limonest substitutes

ZoghlamiBelvitoYateOgierRullGillezAcharatoumane