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Junkeren vs Melbo IL — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Junkeren
Junkeren
CANC
14:00
Melbo IL
Melbo IL
8/29/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Junkeren40%
×Draw24%
Melbo IL36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
1.58
Melbo IL
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Junkeren
1.50
Melbo IL
1.00

allows per match

Junkeren
2.00
Melbo IL
1.67

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Melbo IL+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Melbo IL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
64%
Junkeren or Melbo IL
76%
Draw or Melbo IL
60%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
20%
Melbo IL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
79%
Junkeren 2+ goals
47%
Junkeren 3+ goals
21%
Melbo IL 1+ goals
78%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
44%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
52%
Melbo IL (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Melbo IL away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 1.50 + Melbo IL defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Melbo IL attack 1.00 + Junkeren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junkeren scores more
40%
level
24%
Melbo IL scores more
36%

Junkeren at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Junkeren face Melbo IL (3. Division - Girone 6)

3. Division - Girone 6 returns with Junkeren hosting Melbo IL. Match starts August 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.