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Junkeren vs Kolstad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Junkeren
Junkeren
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kolstad
Kolstad
7/31/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 14Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Junkeren79%
×Draw11%
Kolstad10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
3.82
Kolstad
1.36

Junkeren creates 181% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Junkeren
4.15
Kolstad
1.73

allows per match

Junkeren
1.00
Kolstad
3.48

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Kolstad+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Kolstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
90%
Junkeren or Kolstad
89%
Draw or Kolstad
21%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
62%
Kolstad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
98%
Junkeren 2+ goals
88%
Junkeren 3+ goals
71%
Kolstad 1+ goals
74%
Kolstad 2+ goals
39%
Kolstad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
89%
Kolstad (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 4.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Kolstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 3.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 4.15 + Kolstad defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 3.82

Kolstad attack 1.73 + Junkeren defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Junkeren scores more
79%
level
11%
Kolstad scores more
10%

Junkeren at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junkeren vs Kolstad

Junkeren beat Kolstad 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodø.