Junkeren 5–2 Innstranden: Result & Stats

Junkeren

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Innstranden

8/13/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 16Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Junkeren82%

×Draw10%

Innstranden8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JunkerenExpected goals in this matchInnstranden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

1.19

Junkeren

3.81

Innstranden

1.19

Junkeren creates 220% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

4.15

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

3.46

creates per match

Junkeren

4.15

Innstranden

1.38

allows per match

Junkeren

1.00

Innstranden

3.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par

Innstranden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Innstranden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw

92%

Junkeren or Innstranden

90%

Draw or Innstranden

18%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+

65%

Innstranden wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals

98%

Junkeren 2+ goals

88%

Junkeren 3+ goals

71%

Innstranden 1+ goals

70%

Innstranden 2+ goals

33%

Innstranden 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)

91%

Innstranden (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 4.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Innstranden away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 4.15 + Innstranden defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 3.81

Innstranden attack 1.38 + Junkeren defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Junkeren scores more

82%

level

10%

Innstranden scores more

8%

Junkeren at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff