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Junkeren vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Junkeren
Junkeren
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
J. Grindberg 87'
M. J. Lauritzen 64'
H. Myrseth 50', 6'
T. S. Karlsen 45'
M. Rismoen 14'
4/6/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 2Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Junkeren73%
×Draw14%
Funnefoss / Vormsund13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
3.29
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.38

Junkeren creates 138% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Junkeren
3.92
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Junkeren
1.15
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
87%
Junkeren or Funnefoss / Vormsund
86%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
27%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
54%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
96%
Junkeren 2+ goals
83%
Junkeren 3+ goals
62%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
75%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
40%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
85%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 3.92 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.29

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Junkeren defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Junkeren scores more
73%
level
14%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
13%

Junkeren at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Myrseth
14'
M. Rismoen
45'
T. S. Karlsen
50'
H. Myrseth
64'
M. J. Lauritzen
87'
J. Grindberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junkeren vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Junkeren beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: H. Myrseth (6', 50'), M. Rismoen (14'), T. S. Karlsen (45'), M. J. Lauritzen (64'), J. Grindberg (87').

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodo.