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Junkeren vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Junkeren
Junkeren
FT
8 – 4
HT: 5 – 0
Alta II
Alta II
A. Jakobsen 88'
S. Chooly 78' (pen), 70', 8'
J. Grindberg 41'
I. Unhjem 33'
M. Halsoy 30'
T. Rengard 27'
M. Opgard 61', 57', 49'
E. Ellingsen 54'
6/8/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 9Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Junkeren81%
×Draw11%
Alta II8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junkeren
3.92
Alta II
1.30

Junkeren creates 202% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Junkeren
3.92
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Junkeren
1.15
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Junkeren+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junkeren ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Junkeren or draw
92%
Junkeren or Alta II
89%
Draw or Alta II
19%

Winning margin

Junkeren wins by 2+
65%
Alta II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Junkeren 1+ goals
98%
Junkeren 2+ goals
89%
Junkeren 3+ goals
72%
Alta II 1+ goals
73%
Alta II 2+ goals
37%
Alta II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Junkeren (draw refunded)
91%
Alta II (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junkeren at home — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junkeren attack 3.92 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.92

Alta II attack 1.46 + Junkeren defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Junkeren scores more
81%
level
11%
Alta II scores more
8%

Junkeren at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Chooly
27'
T. Rengard
30'
M. Halsoy
33'
I. Unhjem
41'
J. Grindberg
49'
M. Opgard
54'
E. Ellingsen
57'
M. Opgard
61'
M. Opgard
70'
S. Chooly
71'
J. Kristensen
71'
J. Kristensen
78'
S. ChoolyPenalty
88'
A. Jakobsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junkeren vs Alta II

Junkeren beat Alta II 8-4 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Chooly (8', 70', 78' pen), T. Rengard (27'), M. Halsoy (30'), I. Unhjem (33'), J. Grindberg (41'), M. Opgard (49', 57', 61'), E. Ellingsen (54'), A. Jakobsen (88').

The match was played at Nordlandshallen in Bodo.