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Junior W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Junior W
Junior W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
2/18/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Junior W57%
×Draw21%
Real San Andrés W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior W
2.03
Real San Andrés W
1.16

Junior W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 32 away

creates per match

Junior W
1.33
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

Junior W
1.57
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

Junior W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Junior W or draw
79%
Junior W or Real San Andrés W
79%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
43%

Winning margin

Junior W wins by 2+
34%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Junior W 1+ goals
87%
Junior W 2+ goals
60%
Junior W 3+ goals
33%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
69%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
32%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Junior W (draw refunded)
73%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior W attack 1.33 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.03

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Junior W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Junior W scores more
57%
level
21%
Real San Andrés W scores more
21%

Junior W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Junior W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Junior W 1–3 Real San Andrés W

Real San Andrés W beat Junior W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.