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Junior W vs Once Caldas W — Liga Femenina 2020

Junior W
Junior W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas W
Once Caldas W
5/17/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 12Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Junior W47%
×Draw27%
Once Caldas W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior W
1.42
Once Caldas W
1.00

Junior W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Junior W
1.33
Once Caldas W
0.43

allows per match

Junior W
1.57
Once Caldas W
1.50

finishing

Junior W+0.00on par
Once Caldas W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior W ↓

Once Caldas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Junior W or draw
73%
Junior W or Once Caldas W
73%
Draw or Once Caldas W
53%

Winning margin

Junior W wins by 2+
23%
Once Caldas W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Junior W 1+ goals
76%
Junior W 2+ goals
41%
Junior W 3+ goals
17%
Once Caldas W 1+ goals
63%
Once Caldas W 2+ goals
26%
Once Caldas W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Junior W (draw refunded)
64%
Once Caldas W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Once Caldas W away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior W attack 1.33 + Once Caldas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Once Caldas W attack 0.43 + Junior W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Junior W scores more
47%
level
27%
Once Caldas W scores more
27%

Junior W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Junior W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junior W vs Once Caldas W

Junior W and Once Caldas W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martinez in Barranquilla.