Junior W 2–0 Deportivo Pasto W: Result & Stats

Junior W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pasto W

2/25/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 3Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Junior W47%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Pasto W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.12

Junior W

1.56

Deportivo Pasto W

1.12

Junior W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.57

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Junior W

1.33

Deportivo Pasto W

0.67

allows per match

Junior W

1.57

Deportivo Pasto W

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Junior W or draw

73%

Junior W or Deportivo Pasto W

75%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto W

53%

Winning margin

Junior W wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Junior W 1+ goals

79%

Junior W 2+ goals

46%

Junior W 3+ goals

21%

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Junior W (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior W attack 1.33 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Junior W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Junior W scores more

47%

level

25%

Deportivo Pasto W scores more

27%

Junior W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Junior W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff