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Junior vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Patriotas
Patriotas
10/7/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Junior58%
×Draw25%
Patriotas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.61
Patriotas
0.75

Junior creates 115% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 109 away

creates per match

Junior
1.60
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Junior
0.80
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
83%
Junior or Patriotas
75%
Draw or Patriotas
42%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
31%
Patriotas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
80%
Junior 2+ goals
48%
Junior 3+ goals
22%
Patriotas 1+ goals
53%
Patriotas 2+ goals
17%
Patriotas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
77%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Junior scores more
58%
level
25%
Patriotas scores more
17%

Junior at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junior vs Patriotas

Junior beat Patriotas 2-1 in Primera A on October 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.