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Junior vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Millonarios
Millonarios
C. Bacca 68' (pen), 37'
L. Castro 87' (pen)
5/5/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Junior40%
×Draw28%
Millonarios32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.27
Millonarios
1.09

Junior creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Junior
1.38
Millonarios
1.16

allows per match

Junior
1.02
Millonarios
1.16

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more
Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Millonarios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
68%
Junior or Millonarios
72%
Draw or Millonarios
60%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
18%
Millonarios wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
72%
Junior 2+ goals
36%
Junior 3+ goals
14%
Millonarios 1+ goals
66%
Millonarios 2+ goals
30%
Millonarios 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
56%
Millonarios (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junior scores more
40%
level
28%
Millonarios scores more
32%

Junior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
C. BaccaJuniorJunior · F
8.7

Match Events

37'
C. Bacca↳ B. Castrillón
42'
E. Olivera
44'
R. Hinojosa
59'
L. Vásquez← D. Banguero
59'
S. Giordana← J. Pereira
62'
A. F. Moreno Paz
64'
H. H. Mena Posada
68'
C. BaccaPenalty
74'
H. Martínez← V. Cantillo
74'
L. González← R. Hinojosa
74'
M. Pérez← C. Bacca
77'
J. Largacha← D. Ruiz
77'
B. Castro← E. Rodríguez
78'
E. Herrera← W. Pacheco
78'
J. Enamorado← B. Castrillón
82'
E. Olivera
82'
E. Olivera
86'
J. Pena
87'
L. CastroPenalty
90+2'
J. Largacha
90+5'
D. Moreno

Possession

57%Junior

Shots

9Junior

Pass accuracy

52%Junior

Statistics

JuniorMillonarios
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots7
4Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots7
4On Target2
5Off Target3
0Blocked2
4Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
436Total Passes336
360Accurate Passes260
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
6Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Primera A: Junior 2–1 Millonarios

Junior beat Millonarios 2-1 in Primera A on May 5, 2024.

Goals: C. Bacca (37', 68' pen), L. Castro (87' pen).

Junior controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.