Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
Preview
23:10
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
10/10/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14
Big match
42%
Junior
model favours
42%27%30%

Junior score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior42%
×Draw27%
Internacional de Bogota30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.35
Internacional de Bogota
1.10

Junior creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Junior
1.14
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Junior
1.40
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw
70%
Junior or Internacional de Bogota
73%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
58%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
20%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
74%
Junior 2+ goals
39%
Junior 3+ goals
15%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
67%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
30%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
58%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Junior scores more
42%
level
27%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
30%

Junior at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Internacional de Bogota win just 27% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Junior
Balanced
Internacional de Bogota
Balanced
51%Possession46%
79%Pass accuracy76%
12.0Shots12.4
1.12xGBiggest gap0.97
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JuniorInternacional de Bogota

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Junior
4
Draws
1
Internacional de Bogota
Avg goals: 1.1BTTS: 20%
1–01–11–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Junior
LWLDW
Bogota
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Junior host Internacional de Bogota

October 10, 2026: Junior take on Internacional de Bogota in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.