Junior 1–0 Internacional de Bogota: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

D. Moreno 20'

3/30/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior42%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Bogota30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Junior

1.35

Internacional de Bogota

1.10

Junior creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

0.81

1.40

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Junior

1.14

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Junior

1.40

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw

70%

Junior or Internacional de Bogota

73%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

58%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

20%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

74%

Junior 2+ goals

39%

Junior 3+ goals

15%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

67%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

30%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

58%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Junior scores more

42%

level

27%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

30%

Junior at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

S. Mele

Junior · G

9.0

Match Events

20'

D. Moreno

24'

J. Caicedo← F. Viáfara

29'

Jermein PeñaCard upgrade

31'

Jermein Peña

34'

H. Martínez← D. Caicedo

40'

Andres Correa

45+5'

Martín Payares

46'

E. Herrera← E. Olivera

46'

M. Pérez← C. Bacca

46'

L. Escalante← J. Ceballos

46'

B. Agrón← M. Payares

57'

Santiago Mele

66'

Walmer Pacheco

70'

J. Lloreda← F. Acosta

72'

V. Hernández← Y. Chará

79'

B. Castrillón← J. Enamorado

87'

J. Mahecha← A. Correa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorInternacional

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots24

1Corners11

10Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots24

2On Target8

5Off Target13

1Blocked3

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box14

Passing

33%Possession67%

220Total Passes424

158Accurate Passes368

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1