Junior 3–1 Internacional de Bogota: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

3/18/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Junior43%

×Draw24%

Internacional de Bogota33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.42

Junior

1.66

Internacional de Bogota

1.42

Junior creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Junior

1.75

Internacional de Bogota

1.33

allows per match

Junior

1.50

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Junior or draw

67%

Junior or Internacional de Bogota

76%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

57%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

81%

Junior 2+ goals

49%

Junior 3+ goals

23%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

76%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

41%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.75 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.33 + Junior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Junior scores more

43%

level

24%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

33%

Junior at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff