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Junior vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
Preview
01:20
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
9/27/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12
Big match
35%
Junior
model favours
35%30%35%

Junior score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Junior35%
×Draw30%
Independiente Medellin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.07
Independiente Medellin
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Junior
1.38
Independiente Medellin
1.12

allows per match

Junior
1.02
Independiente Medellin
0.76

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more
Independiente Medellin+0.31scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Junior or draw
65%
Junior or Independiente Medellin
70%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
65%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
14%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
66%
Junior 2+ goals
29%
Junior 3+ goals
9%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
66%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
29%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
50%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Independiente Medellin attack 1.12 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Junior scores more
35%
level
30%
Independiente Medellin scores more
35%

Junior at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches
  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Junior sit 12, Independiente Medellin 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Junior
Balanced
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
52%Possession53%
80%Pass accuracy80%
11.9ShotsBiggest gap14.0
1.26xG1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JuniorIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Junior
2
Draws
5
Independiente Medellin
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 20%
0–21–21–02–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Junior
LWLDW
Medellin
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Junior face Independiente Medellin (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Junior hosting Independiente Medellin. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.