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Independiente Medellin vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Junior
Junior
12/8/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 183+ matches

Independiente Medellin47%
×Draw28%
Junior25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.35
Junior
0.89

Independiente Medellin creates 52% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 201 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Junior
0.96

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Junior
1.14

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
75%
Independiente Medellin or Junior
72%
Draw or Junior
53%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
23%
Junior wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
74%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
39%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
15%
Junior 1+ goals
59%
Junior 2+ goals
22%
Junior 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
66%
Junior (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Junior away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Junior defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Junior attack 0.96 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
47%
level
28%
Junior scores more
25%

Independiente Medellin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Junior

Independiente Medellin beat Junior 2-1 in Primera A on December 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.