Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Junior vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
2/2/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 185+ matches

Junior49%
×Draw26%
Independiente Medellin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.48
Independiente Medellin
0.98

Junior creates 51% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 185 away

creates per match

Junior
1.60
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Junior
0.80
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw
75%
Junior or Independiente Medellin
74%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
51%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
24%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
77%
Junior 2+ goals
43%
Junior 3+ goals
19%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
62%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
26%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
66%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Junior scores more
49%
level
26%
Independiente Medellin scores more
25%

Junior at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junior vs Independiente Medellin

Junior beat Independiente Medellin 3-0 in Primera A on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.