Junior 1–0 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

M. Borja 35' (pen)

2/1/2020

Primera A · Round 3Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Junior40%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.99

Junior

1.18

Independiente Medellin

0.99

Junior creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

0.97

1.02

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Junior

1.38

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Junior

1.02

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Junior or draw

69%

Junior or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

60%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

17%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

69%

Junior 2+ goals

33%

Junior 3+ goals

12%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

63%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

57%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junior scores more

40%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Junior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Borja

Junior · F

8.2

Match Events

35'

M. BorjaPenalty

40'

Daniel Castro

46'

M. Balanta← B. Garcés

46'

J. Caicedo← M. Cortés

63'

Cristian Higuita

68'

Didier Moreno← L. Vásquez

74'

Andres Ricaurte

81'

C. Valencia← F. Hinestroza

81'

F. Flores← J. Estupiñan

85'

Francisco Flores

90'

Maicol Balanta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorIndependiente

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots14

4Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target2

3Off Target9

4Blocked3

5Inside Box4

5Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

419Total Passes447

347Accurate Passes378

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0