Junior 2–1 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza FC

3/16/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior36%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Junior

1.23

Fortaleza FC

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

1.40

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Junior

1.14

Fortaleza FC

1.11

allows per match

Junior

1.40

Fortaleza FC

1.31

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more

Fortaleza FC+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Junior or draw

63%

Junior or Fortaleza FC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

64%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

15%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

71%

Junior 2+ goals

35%

Junior 3+ goals

13%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

71%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

36%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

49%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fortaleza FC attack 1.11 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Junior scores more

36%

level

27%

Fortaleza FC scores more

37%

Fortaleza FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff