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Junior vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
1/18/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 196+ matches

Junior43%
×Draw28%
Deportes Tolima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.31
Deportes Tolima
1.01

Junior creates 30% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 196 away

creates per match

Junior
1.60
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Junior
0.80
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw
71%
Junior or Deportes Tolima
72%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
57%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
20%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
73%
Junior 2+ goals
38%
Junior 3+ goals
14%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
60%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Junior scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportes Tolima scores more
29%

Junior at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 0–2 Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Junior 2-0 in Primera A on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez in Barranquilla.