Junior 0–1 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Junior

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportes Tolima

D. Moreno 42' (OG)

2/19/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 196+ matches

Junior43%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.01

Junior

1.31

Deportes Tolima

1.01

Junior creates 30% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 196 away

1.60

creates per match

1.22

0.80

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Junior

1.60

Deportes Tolima

1.22

allows per match

Junior

0.80

Deportes Tolima

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

71%

Junior or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

57%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

20%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

73%

Junior 2+ goals

38%

Junior 3+ goals

14%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

64%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

27%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

60%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Junior scores more

43%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

29%

Junior at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

S. Mele

Junior · G

8.5

Match Events

11'

B. Gil← L. González

36'

C. Bacca

40'

D. Moreno

42'

D. MorenoOwn goal

45+1'

R. Perez

45+3'

K. Perez

46'

H. Martínez← V. Cantillo

46'

B. Rovira← J. Nieto

55'

C. BaccaGoal Disallowed - offside

62'

M. Pérez← D. Caicedo

73'

E. Sosa← Y. Guzmán

73'

C. Trujillo← F. Mosquera

74'

L. González← D. Moreno

81'

B. Rovira

83'

V. Hernández← J. Enamorado

83'

J. Bocanegra← C. Bacca

90+5'

M. Torres

90'

L. Riascos← Á. Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorDeportes

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots19

6Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots19

3On Target8

11Off Target8

7Blocked3

13Inside Box8

8Outside Box11

Passing

55%Possession45%

476Total Passes392

417Accurate Passes328

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

9Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Primera A: Junior 0–1 Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Junior 1-0 in Primera A on February 19, 2024.

Goals: D. Moreno (42' o.g.).

Junior controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.

Junior vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Junior 0–1 Deportes Tolima