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Junior vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
4/4/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Junior36%
×Draw30%
Alianza Valledupar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.09
Alianza Valledupar
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Junior
1.14
Alianza Valledupar
0.68

allows per match

Junior
1.40
Alianza Valledupar
1.04

finishing

Junior+0.26scores more
Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Junior or draw
66%
Junior or Alianza Valledupar
70%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
64%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
15%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
66%
Junior 2+ goals
30%
Junior 3+ goals
10%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
65%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
28%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
52%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.14 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Junior defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Junior scores more
36%
level
30%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
34%

Junior at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 1–0 Alianza Valledupar

Junior beat Alianza Valledupar 1-0 in Primera A on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.